College Football Preview Week 2
Week one is in the books, and a loaded schedule did not disappoint. Highlighted by Florida State upsetting Alabama and Arch Manning underwhelming as Texas lost at Ohio State, we were treated to great football from 11 am until after midnight. Now, week two is upon us, and while the schedule is not quite as “sexy” on paper as week one. These are the weeks that always deliver in unexpected ways, and there are some hidden gems to be found this weekend.
#11 Illinois -3 @ Duke Saturday 11 AM on ESPN
Illinois entered the season with playoff and even Big10 Championship aspirations. They get their first test of the season on the road tomorrow at Duke.
Luke Altmeyer and Illinois cruised to a 52-3 win over Western Illinois in week 1. Offense cruised, and defense looked strong. Altmeyer was excellent, throwing three touchdowns on 17-of-22 passing for 217 yards.
Taking a significant step up in class this week, this is not a pushover Duke football team, and Head Coach Manny Diaz’s defense gave Altmeyer fits when he was the defensive coordinator at Penn State in 2023. Altmeyer threw four interceptions that day and zero Touchdowns.
This Duke team does not have Penn State talent, and Altmeyer has undoubtedly grown as a player since then, but still, Diaz had a formula that worked that day, and I have no doubts he has a game plan to give the Illini offense fits.
Duke is 12-2 at home the past two years. The only losses were a 7-point overtime loss to ND in 2023 and a 1-point overtime loss to SMU last year. The top donors appear to be fully committed to football, spending money in the portal. Notably, the team acquired transfer QB Darian Mensah from Tulane.
In my opinion, this game will come down to defense. Illinois is breaking in new wideouts after losing Bryant and Franklin to the NFL. Diaz can play Duke’s defense how he likes to play, corners on islands, bringing blitzes and pressures, trying to force Altmeyer into bad decisions.
On the other side of the ball, Duke was impressive on offense last week, but that was Elon. This is a significant step up in class. Still, Duke QB Mensah shredded Elon, 27 for 34, which included two drops, three touchdowns. He earned PFF’s second-highest QB passing grade in Week 1, 94.5, with four big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
Overall, I don’t think Duke is the better team, but getting three points at home is too good to pass on. They have the better quarterback and, in my opinion, the better coach.
Projection, Blue Devils cover the +3.
Iowa +3.5 @ Iowa State Saturday 11 am on FOX
Nine of the last thirteen games have been decided by one possession, and sixteen of the last twenty have gone under the projected total. Iowa has won six straight at Iowa State. The road team has won the past five matchups. If you follow trends and make picks based on them, those are some pretty good trends to go on.
Iowa State is off to a 2-0 start after beating Kansas State in Dublin, Ireland, week 0, and dominating South Dakota last week. Cyclone quarterback Rocco Becht has been solid thus far, with five touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing 68.8% of his passes. Per PFF, he only has three big-time throws but just one turnover-worthy play.
On the other hand, Iowa’s new quarterback, a transfer from South Dakota State, Mark Gronowski, struggled in their season opener, going 8 for 15 for 44 yards against Albany. Iowa dominated the game on the ground, rushing for 321 yards and winning the game 34-7.
The rushing stat is the key in this matchup. Kansas State averaged over 4 yards per rush against the Cyclones with their backup running back. I expect Iowa to control the clock, run the ball all game, and keep a low-scoring match close. This game is currently at 3.5, and that is too many points for this matchup. I think Iowa easily covers the spread on the road.
Projection, Hawkeyes +3.5.
Ole Miss -8.5 @ Kentucky 2:30 pm on ABC
Ole Miss is seeking revenge after being upset at home by the Wildcats last year as a three-possession favorite.
Kentucky was able to shorten the game last year, possessing the ball for 39 minutes—an absolute clinic on controlling the game. Two completely different styles of offense are on display, as Ole Miss tends to go fast when given the opportunity, while Kentucky prefers a slower approach. Look for Kentucky to do the same thing tomorrow. If they are successful, this game will come down to the fourth quarter again.
Austin Simmons is making his first road start for the Rebs and will look to play a cleaner game. He was somewhat sloppy with two interceptions and a fumble in his first start. He and the Ole Miss offense looked better as the game went on, firing on all cylinders, particularly in the second half.
Kewan Lacy impressed, rushing for 3 Touchdowns and 108 yards in his Rebels debut. He forced 13 missed tackles on 16 carries, an incredibly impressive ratio. Ole Miss recruited him hard out of high school but ultimately lost out to Missouri in the 2024 cycle. Now in Oxford, his three touchdowns on Saturday are three more than he had in his single season with the Tigers.
Ole Miss’s offensive line was unimpressive early on, but it also settled in as the game progressed. Kentucky is not the most talented roster, but they always have a solid defense, and I would expect them to get after Simmons early, keep the Rebels offense off schedule, preventing them from going fast, and play keep away as they did last year.
The spread of this game has fluctuated significantly. Opening around Ole Miss at -9.5, it briefly rose to 10.5 and is now at 8.5. If you want to play this game, keep an eye on it to move some more or look for a good number live if Ole Miss can get an early score. Anything Kentucky +10 is a play in my opinion, or Ole Miss -7 or better. I would not touch this at 8.5.
Projection, stay away.
Michigan +5.5 @ Oklahoma 6:30 pm on ABC
This is the most intriguing game of the week, in my opinion. Very curious to see what Oklahoma’s offense will look like with Washington State transfer QB Mateer against a real defense. On the flip side, the same curiosity about Michigan true freshman, former five-star recruit at quarterback, Bryce Underwood, will look like in his first road start.
Oklahoma struggled to run against Illinois State last week, averaging only 3.5 yards per rush, and was stuffed on 32% of attempts, forcing just 3 missed tackles as a group. John Mateer just eight yards on three designed runs.
Michigan’s rush defense looked stout against New Mexico State’s rush attack. Stuffing nearly 50% of their attempts and making nine tackles for loss.
This is another game where I think defense controls the outcome. That is both teams’ strengths, and I look for them to play into that, making this a very similar type of game to last week’s Texas-Ohio State matchup.
Oklahoma secures a home win, but it’s a close one.
Projection, Michigan +5.5.
Kansas +6.5 @ Missouri 2:30 on ESPN
I think Missouri is overrated, but Drinkwitz seemingly gets the most out of the talent he has. Transfer QB Beau Pribula was solid against Central Arkansas for whatever that is worth to you. It is not a significant data point, but it is a data point, nonetheless. Missouri won that game 61-6.
Kansas has been fortunate enough to play two games this season, beating Fresno State and Wagner by a combined score of 77-14.
Their defense has been absolutely stuffing the run, which wouldn’t mean a whole lot to me except that Fresno turned around and ran for over six yards a carry in their next game. Kansas is short at linebacker, but the defense has been promising.
On the offensive side of the ball, Jaden Daniels is finally healthy and in his sixth season. I think his experience will help keep Kansas in this game, but ultimately, they are out-talented and most likely out-coached on the road. My initial read on this game was Kansas, but I am flip-flopping out of that.
Projection, Missouri covers 6.5 at home.
Teaser of the Week
This week, I found two underdogs, both at +6.5, that I think can easily cover an extra six points. We are going to parlay Kansas and Mississippi State into a teaser together.
Projection, Kansas and Mississippi State both cover +12.5.
Week 1 Blog Picks 5-4.
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