College Football Preview Week 7
Welcome to week seven! The halfway mark of the college football season is here, and it is probably the deepest slate of games we’ve had. Yes, better than weeks one and five.
Who would have thought Penn State, Texas, and Clemson would all have two losses, three for Clemson, and be unranked at the halfway point of the season? Obviously not me, based on our preseason preview, boy, were we wrong. Gives me some solace to know that many professionals also whiffed on those teams—still time for them to turn it around.
As the college football playoff picture starts to take shape, this is the first week where most of the contenders get to prove themselves, especially in the SEC: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Alabama, and Missouri. Big 10 teams: Michigan, USC, and Indiana all get a chance to make a statement. In the Big 12, Arizona State, BYU, and Utah will all get a chance to make a statement Saturday and announce themselves as potential contenders as well.
So many good games this weekend. Today is the day to stop by your local electronics store, get a new television or two, pick something up from the grocery store to grill or smoke tomorrow, and have yourself a college football Saturday.
(8) Alabama -3 @ (14) Missouri 11 am ABC
The early slate gets us started with a top-15 matchup—the first in Columbia, MO, since 1979. A surprising stat, given that Missouri has fielded some excellent teams over the years.
The Tigers are led by star running back Ahmad Hardy, who has 730 yards rushing with 570 of those yards coming after contact. He has more YAC than 17 teams have total this season. More on that later.
These two teams are moving the ball down the field and scoring in two completely different ways. Missouri is making its hay in the rushing game so far this season. Behind Hardy, Missouri’s second-leading rusher is Jamal Roberts, who has 350 yards rushing. Roberts has more rushing yards than Alabama’s two leading rushers combined, Jam Miller and Kevin Riley, who have run for 249 yards as a unit so far this season. Jam has missed some time this season due to injury.
Missouri is third in the country in rushing yards per game this season, averaging 292, and fourth in total rushing yards with 1,460 yards total.
Alabama’s defense ranks 93rd in the country in rushing yards per game at 127.2 and yards per attempt at 3.9.
Missouri has a clear advantage in running the ball against Alabama. The Tigers also have a legit pass rush and will be able to pressure Ty Simpson, Alabama’s QB. This is also an incredible, INCREDIBLE, spot of the year for the Tigers. In the last two weeks, they played UMass and had a BYE. Alabama, on the other hand, played a grudge match at Georgia and another challenging game against Vanderbilt last week.
Before diving into this, I was thinking of Missouri as a pretender and Alabama as emerging back as a legit contender after their slow start. I do not think Alabama’s defense will be able to stop Missouri’s offense. I worry about how much the public loves the Tigers here.
Projection: Missouri +3. The over of 51.5 is worth a look.
(1) Ohio State -14.5 @ (17) Illinois 11 am FOX
Fox’s Big Noon Kickoff features the AP #1 team and the SafeHarbour #1 team, the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Look, Luke Altmeyer and Illinois continue to look good, aside from the one game against Indiana. The caveat is that they played a USC team with food poisoning and missing three defensive starters, including the green dot player, and Duke without their starting Safety.
This Ohio State defense is another animal; they are the best in the country at tackling behind the line of scrimmage, and Defensive Coordinator Matt Patricia is coaching circles around opposing offenses this season. I will not be going against the Buckeyes until the market catches up.
Projection: Ohio State -14.5
(7) Indiana +7.5 @ (3) Oregon 2:30 pm CBS
We mentioned contenders or pretenders earlier. Oregon is the ultimate contender; they’ve already proved they are one of three elite teams, in my opinion. They have a national championship roster, and Dan Lanning continues to impress me.
To be clear, I don’t think Indiana is a pretender, but I don’t think they are quite a contender yet either. They are better than last year’s ten-win playoff team, but they are still a level below the elite teams in the country.
I’ll mention this again later in the blog. Big Ten teams travelling two or more time zones are 11-23-1 ATS. I cannot believe that college kids dealing with travelling that far and having their internal body clocks thrown off is such a big deal. I am shocked.
Oregon is the better team at home, and Indiana is dealing with travel that is just too much.
Projection: Oregon -7.5
(6) Oklahoma -1.5 vs Texas 2:30 pm ABC (Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, TX)
Is John Mateer playing? Rumblings are yes.
The Texas offensive line is not good. Poor Arch Manning doesn’t have much time to do anything in the pocket. We saw what Florida did to them last week, and now they face an Oklahoma team with a better defensive front.
This game is always weird in Dallas, and strange things happen. We see the team that is not as good win all the time. Oklahoma has an elite defense, though, and defense travels. This is not the game Texas needs to get right.
Oklahoma is a contender in my opinion, and they can prove it this week. The Sooner’s schedule is about to get brutal, and they cannot afford to lose this one.
Projection: Oklahoma -1.5
Florida +7.5 @ (5) Texas A&M 6:00 pm ESPN
This is the easiest game of the week for me.
Florida has not been good at running the football. They’ve lived and died through the air this year, and when Lagway’s had time to throw, and receivers get open, he’s been good. Dallas Wilson coming back last week was huge for Florida.
Texas A&M’s defensive backs and tackling have been getting better as the season progresses. There is film on Dallas Wilson now, and the Aggies won’t be shocked like Texas was.
Projection: Texas A&M -7.5
(15) Michigan +2.5 @ USC 6:30 pm NBC
There is a reason the team ranked in the top fifteen is a road underdog.
USC can still play its way into the playoff discussion, but it must start this week. They had the food poisoning and travel working against them in Illinois and lost on a last-second field goal.
Michigan is not as good on offense as Illinois is, and they are facing the dreaded two-time zone difference as they travel to Southern California.
Michigan is going to run the ball on a bad USC rush defense at will, but I also think the Trojans will move the ball and have explosive plays against the Wolverines.
Projection: USC -2.5
Best of the Rest
South Carolina +9.5 @ (11) LSU 6:45 pm SECN
In the Alabama/Missouri preview, I mentioned Ahmad Hardy has more rushing yards AFTER CONTACT than seventeen teams have total on the season. LSU and South Carolina are two of those teams.
Arkansas +12 @ (12) Tennessee 3:15 pm SECN
Bobby Petrino’s first game coaching the Hogs, again. Josh Heupal has the chance for the ultimate troll. He should lead the team out by driving through the power T on a motorcycle wearing a neck brace with a young, hot blonde on the back.
Kansas +14 @ Texas Tech 6:30 pm
Texas Tech announced a new logo this week. The logo is bad, but the team is not. They beat and cover a less-talented Kansas team easily this weekend.
(10) Georgia -3.5 @ Auburn 6:30 pm ABC
Perhaps a game we should have written about a little bit more. Georgia’s defensive front is shockingly bad. Don’t be shocked if this is a Hugh Freeze special in Auburn this weekend. The Tigers will be featured in one of our teasers later.
(18) BYU -1.5 @ Arizona 7 pm ESPN 2
The Mormons are unbeaten and want respect. Feel like I’ve seen this story before, maybe last season. If they want to be a contender and compete for the Big 12, it starts this weekend.
(21) Arizona State +8.5 @ Utah 9:15 pm
This line shocked me. Vegas seemingly doesn’t believe in the Sun Devils. Great game to make a nightcap and fall asleep on the couch watching. Set an alarm for 11:30, though. Something tells me you’ll regret missing the end of this one.
Teasers of the Week
Auburn +10 and South Carolina +15.5
Arizona State +15 and Michigan +8.5
Picks We Love
South Carolina/LSU Under 44
As long as there aren’t too many explosives, this should hit easily. With both teams unable to run the ball effectively, I don’t expect many sustained drives.
Ole Miss -20 1H
Coming off a BYE, will the Rebels be looking ahead to Georgia? Something tells me no, at least in the first half. Look for the Rebs to get ahead by a considerable margin early before letting off the gas in the second half.
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