College Football Week 3 Preview
Week three is upon us, and I absolutely love this slate we are about to throw at you! The SEC dominates the best games of the week, and that is where we are going to focus our attention.
There are a few notable games outside of the SEC to keep your eye on this weekend, most notably, Clemson, a three-point road favorite at Georgia Tech. We will not dive into that game or any other games not featuring a team in the SEC.
After last week’s projections going 3-2, the official blog picks are 8-6 on the season. I am 13-7 on the season in the Action Network App. Follow along there for additional picks and live updates when we place a projection https://app.actionnetwork.com/4zu6/k7cu3xfb.
Let’s get into this week’s slate.
Georgia -3.5 @ Tennessee 2:30 ABC
Kirby Smart has dominated Josh Heupel in the four games they have gone head-to-head. Tennessee has never scored more than 17 points in those games and averages just 14. Now I know these teams have looked vastly different in their first two games of the season, with Tennessee dominating and Georgia looking anything but impressive, but that is how these coaches typically operate against lesser opponents.
Heupel beats up on the schools of the deaf and blind, while Kirby always treats them as scrimmages and works on specific things. After two games this season, Kirby Smart’s Georgia teams are 0-15 as a favorite of 38 points or more. He does not care about beating lesser opponents to a pulp.
I do not think the Bulldogs’ looking lethargic is any concern this early in the season. My concern would be with their QB position. Gunner Stockton does nothing for me. Now, in fairness, he has not been asked to do a whole lot, and he has taken care of the ball, with zero turnover-worthy plays per PFF.
Tennessee’s QB Joey Aguilar has been slightly more impressive, averaging two more yards than Stockton on yards per attempt 9ypa versus Stockton’s 7ypa. Everything has been easy for him in the first two games, though. Just one big-time throw so far.
Ultimately, this game comes down to the head coaches. Kirby has dominated Heupel, and I do not expect that to change. Georgia has been so conservative on offense and defense in their first two games; I expect them to have multiple looks that Tennessee is not expecting. Until Heupel can show me something different, I’m going with the guy who’s had his number.
Projection, Georgia covers -3.5.
Vanderbilt +3 @ South Carolina 6:45 SEC Network
The Commodores’ offense has been dominant. Diego Pavia plays with his heart on his sleeve and gives 110% effort every single play. Vanderbilt’s defensive line and front six have been getting after the run. Vanderbilt was supposed to take a step back after outperforming expectations a year ago? Not so fast, they look super impressive through their two games.
Now, I know the transitive property truly doesn’t exist in college football, but we only have two data points through the season, and one of those data points is that both teams have played Virginia Tech.
South Carolina’s offense was not good in that matchup. Going off my eye test, Lanoris Sellers does not look good in the pocket, and the Gamecocks’ offensive line does not look great. They got saved by special teams, a touchdown only after Virginia Tech committed a penalty.
Both of South Carolina’s games this year have seen their opponents outgain them on offense. Last week against South Carolina State, they only had 253 yards of offense. Sellers just 128 yards passing, the entire offense only 125 yards rushing. The offensive stats are bad all around. They are 116th in the country in third-down conversions and 98th in yards per play, at just 4.9.
On the other hand, Vanderbilt dominated Virginia Tech after a slow start. They went on the road and beat the Hokies 44-20. Dominated on offense, averaging 8.6 yards per play. The Commodores are sixth in the country in yards per play average this season at 8.3.
Both of South Carolina’s games this year have seen their opponents outgaining them on offense. The offensive line is a mess. The whole team, being the media’s sweetheart, is severely overrated. I look for Vanderbilt to go on the road this weekend and get the Win outright, easily cover the 3.5 points. Simply put, the wrong team is favored.
Projection: Vanderbilt wins outright.
Florida +7 @ LSU 6:30 ABC
This might be the most intriguing game of the week for me. It feels like every year, when I look at this game, I always end up on the wrong side. Earlier this week, the initial thought was that LSU looked impressive against Clemson in week 1, throwing the week 2 performance, and they get Florida at home in a revenge spot after being upset last year in The Swamp. Obviously, Florida had that stinker of a performance against USF last week, ultimately losing.
The Tigers sleepwalked last week in that hangover spot after beating Clemson and were looking ahead to Florida. The most surprising thing is that LSU, even against Louisiana Tech last week, was unable to get the passing game going. Nussmeier only threw for 237 yards on 26 completions—a mere 5.9 yards per attempt. The offense has not yet clicked.
Florida has been solid on defense so far; they just have not been able to generate pressure on the quarterback, which worries me in this spot. With time, Nussmeier and the LSU offense might be able to open things up and finally click.
Napier always seems to come back with a win after a bad loss. He is now coaching for his job, and last year we saw how hard the team played down the stretch when he was in this spot. Down the stretch, they beat LSU and Ole Miss, both better teams. I think Napier can get them going this week, bounce back, and keep it close.
I do not think Florida wins this game, but I do believe a touchdown is too many points. I think it’s tight to the fourth quarter, but ultimately, LSU is too good, too much at home.
“Ladies and Gentlemen, the sun will soon find its home in the Western sky, and it will be Saturday night in Death Valley.”
Projection, Florida +7.
Texas A&M +6.5 at Notre Dame 6:30 NBC
Notre Dame is coming off an early-season, week 2 bye after losing at Miami in week 1. A game I was on the wrong side of. Notre Dame’s offensive line was outmatched against the Hurricanes’ defensive front. Still, we will not penalize them too harshly for that, as most teams will face a similar issue against an elite Miami front four.
The Irish get the advantage of an extra week’s preparation and playing at home this week. Two key factors that I think will ultimately decide this outcome.
Texas A&M, with quarterback Marcel Reed, has been solid on offense and done what has been expected of them against lesser opponents the first two weeks of the season—defeating Utah State and UTSA handily but failing to cover the number both times. The defense looks like they might have some holes, but that could also be them playing base defenses and not showing too much early in the season.
Honestly, it has been hard to get a read on this game, and it is the least confident in any of the projections. My gut tells me this is a close, low-scoring game, and 6.5 points is often too many when games take that direction.
Projection, Texas A&M +6.5.
Arkansas +6.5 @ Ole Miss 6:00 ESPN
As an Ole Miss fan, I hate this matchup every season. It gives me heartburn. Since Kiffin has been the coach at Ole Miss, we have seen a few high-scoring games between these two teams, and something tells me that is what we are in for tomorrow.
Arkansas quarterback Taylon Green and Offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino are both in their second season with the Hogs. They have been explosive through two games this season, albeit against schools for the poor. Expect them to have some explosive plays against Ole Miss.
Green is an elusive runner and an above-average passer. He’s passed for 561 yards while completing just shy of 72% of his passes this season, while also rushing the ball 18 times and racking up 192 yards on the ground.
He is a true dual-threat quarterback, and that is always more challenging for a defense, having to account for him as a runner on every play. What Ole Miss should be able to take advantage of on the defensive side of the ball is that most of Green’s passes this season are all to the middle of the field. He has only attempted one pass outside of the left hash and just a handful outside of the right side hash. That might work against Arkansas State, but expect Pete Golding and the Ole Miss defense to protect the middle of the field, taking away easy passes and test Green’s arm tomorrow.
Ole Miss starting quarterback Austin Simmons suffered an ankle sprain in the fourth quarter last week against Kentucky. He will be available tomorrow, but it is expected that backup Trinidad Chambliss will get the start.
Chambliss also brings a running dynamic to the Ole Miss offense. Last week, after Simmons’ injury, he came in and led the team down the field in a drive that resulted in a field goal, ultimately icing the game. He carried the ball three times for eleven yards and did not attempt a pass.
Ole Miss’s defense has been solid through two games, but they still are in prove-it mode for me. This week will be their biggest test, and we will really know what type of team we have in Oxford after tomorrow. I’m expecting a good amount of offense and think this game goes over the projected over/under of 62.5. I was able to lock it in earlier in the week when it was below the key number of 62 at 61.5.
Arkansas keeps this game close, but ultimately, I do think Ole Miss is the better team. The key matchup is Pete Golding’s Ole Miss defense vs Petrino’s Arkansas offense. The home team gets a few more stops than the Hogs and closes this one out in the fourth quarter.
Projection, Ole Miss covers -6.5.
Teaser of the Week
None.
A few picks I love.
Clemson to cover -3 at Georgia Tech.
Miami to cover -17.5 at home vs USF. Bad spot for the Bulls after two top 25 wins. They will have Miami’s full attention.
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Image via Yahoo Sports.
