College Football Week 6 Preview
Week five lived up to the hype. Friday night kicked off the weekend with one of the best field rushes you’ll see as Virginia knocked off Florida State in OT. On Saturday, we watched Oregon establish itself as one of the few elite teams, beating Penn State in overtime. Alabama, back from the dead after going into Athens and defeating Georgia, and Ole Miss surging into the top five after dominating LSU for most of that game in Oxford.
The first weekend of October is a “hangover” weekend, with many teams getting their first bye week, including seven teams from the SEC. Week six features just two games, matching up top twenty-five teams against each other, and just fifteen top twenty-five teams are in action.
Despite the weaker slate on paper, these weekends always deliver some gems.
(16) Vanderbilt +10.5 @ (10) Alabama 2:30 ABC
How many times have Vanderbilt and Alabama played with both being ranked in the top twenty-five? Based on my research, this is one of the few. According to ESPN, this is the first time they’ve met with both teams ranked since 1937.
Last season, Vandy blindsided Alabama in a hangover spot. This season, I expect Alabama to be ready for revenge, as they will not overlook the Commodores. Bama wins, but the fighting Diego Pavia’s slow offense, averaging a snap every 31 seconds, keeps it close. This one could come down to the hook.
Projection: Vandy +10.5
(3) Miami -4.5 @ (18) Florida State 6:30 ABC
Not going to lie. I am a bit upset with the Seminoles for losing last week at Virginia. Some of the luster is off this game now, but it still carries significant playoff implications.
Miami has the chance to join Ohio State and Oregon as one of the clear elite teams in college football with a win in Tallahassee.
Florida State could probably lose and win out and still get into the playoffs at 10-2, but sitting at 3-2 just barely into October does not give you any wiggle room.
Coming off the loss, look for FSU to be focused and fired up.
Projection: FSU +4.5
(9) Texas -5.5 @ Florida 2:30 ESPN
I have a feeling that when the Southeastern Conference was creating the schedule this season, they didn’t expect this game to be overshadowed by Alabama and Vanderbilt, but here we are.
Two of the most hyped quarterbacks of the preseason have been quite the disappointment relative to expectations. Arch Manning, and it’s not his fault, was anointed all season as the Heisman front-runner and best QB in college football.
DJ Lagway showed plenty of potential last season, but off-season injuries, an abysmal performance in Baton Rouge, throwing five interceptions, and a 1-3 Florida record have seen his stock plummet. How many days does Billy Napier have coaching in Gainesville? I keep thinking he will pull another rabbit out of the hat just as he did at the end of last season, upsetting both LSU and Ole Miss.
Florida and Texas both have damn good defenses. Texas has given up only four touchdowns, and Florida has allowed only five. If you ask me whose offense I trust more, though, I go with Texas.
I don’t love this pick, but here it is.
Projection: Texas -5.5 and Under 42.5
Mississippi State +15 @ (6) Texas A&M 6:30 SECN
This feels like a lot of points to give an SEC team that is much improved and has already beaten a top twenty-five team this season.
The Aggies stuffed the Auburn offense last week, but every other team with a pulse has also dominated Auburn’s offense, and I think that was more about Auburn than Texas A&M.
Mississippi State cannot rush the passer and is giving up too many explosive plays. While much improved from last season, their deficiencies catch up to them this week. Aggies win big.
Projection: Texas A&M -15
(24) Virginia +6.5 @ Louisville 2:30 ESPN2
Virginia was about a 6.5-point underdog last week and upset Florida State. Now, they’re ranked in the top twenty-five, on the road, as a 6.5-point underdog again. Now they have a big win, a number next to their name, and they are the hunted, not the hunter.
This is a classic let-down spot. Beat a top-ten team at home, then go on the road, and you either cement yourself as a good team or show that you’re average. I think Virginia is average.
Projection: Louisville -6.5
Teasers of the Week
Florida State +1.5 & Virginia +12.5
Other Picks I Love
Iowa State @ Cincinnati -1.5
Texas Tech -11.5 @ Houston and Under 52.5
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